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System Analysis

Backgroud information

In the case of ex-ante estimation for a single RI, the object of socio-economic impact assessment is the comparison of two future alternative situations:

» The future development of the regional system without the RI (baseline scenario)
This should not be confused with the situation at the moment of the project initiation, as some evolutions in the system during the analyzed period are assumed in the absence of the RI.

» The future development of the regional system without the RI (success scenario)
The evaluation of the impact is made according to a success scenario, a realistic picture of the system (RI & stakeholders) at the time horizon specified. Realism is based on

  • o the project's envisaged activities and interactions
  • o experience from other similar cases
  • o balanced estimation of stakeholders' interests
  • o a set of accepted assumptions about future trends and events.

For comparison, the alternative developments should rely on
• a common representation of the present socio-economic development
• similar sets of assumptions of future events and transformations.

The following figure describes the representation of the RI impact as difference between success and baseline scenario, in the simplified form of unifactorial evolutions.

Figure. The RI impact as a difference between success and baseline scenarios

The scenario development builds on and combines the information from the Regional and RI modules, but it explores a broader spectrum of interactions, integrating the interest and strategies of the different stakeholders. While not mainly intended to provide quantitative estimations, the scenarios serve for the identification of socio-economic impact lines that are assessed later in the impact modules. Moreover, the success scenario serves as benchmarking of the risks not associated with the project itself, but with the stakeholders' reactions.

The baseline scenario could be developed as part of the assessment or simply can be used as an already exiting one if available. The elements of the baseline scenario are later used as a starting point for the success scenario, which considers a set of additional interactions and possible new stakeholders.

Recommended procedure for success scenario development

1. Mapping the stakeholders

Objective: Identification of the stakeholders based on their interest and relevance.

Methods: documentation, snowball surveys and co-nomination, skill-will matrix.

2. Identification of possible successful collaborations

Objective: Identification of the possible interactions, from the point of view of the stakeholders and their objectives.

Methods: interviews, actor-objective analysis, role playing

3. Identification of enablers and bottlenecks in developing success relations

Objective: Estimation of the current capacity of the stakeholders to develop the success relations with the RI.

Methods: interviews, SWOT

4. Identification of the drivers of change for stakeholders

Objective: Identification of the drivers of trends or new events that could impact the key stakeholders on medium and long term, changing their potential interaction with the RI.

Methods: horizon scanning (trends, week signals and wild cards), STEEPV, Delphi.

5. Scenario development

Objective: Development of the success scenario.

Method: scenario workshop.