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Scoping the assessment

The ex-ante estimation of SE impacts for an existing RI (UC5) represents in fact a succession of the applications of UC4 (ex-post evaluation) and UC1 (ex-ante evaluation). In UC5 some historical information on the stakeholder's reactions may be very useful for building future scenarios, but the changes in regional SE conditions and in the project plan should not be ignored.

For the ex-post (see UC4) the SE assessment requires the comparison of two situations:
- The current development of the region
- The contra-factual scenario of the region without an RI

For the ex-ante (see UC1) the object of socio-economic impact assessment is the comparison of two future alternative situations:
- The future development of the regional system without the RI (baseline scenario)
- The future development of the regional system without the RI (success scenario)

The following figure describes the representation of the RI impact as difference between success and baseline scenario, in the simplified form of unifactorial evolutions.

The two most important dimensions for the scoping exercise are the time horizon and the reference system; considering the spatial/regional extension and relevant sectors.

While the selection of the time frame in ex-post is highly dependent of the date of project initialisation, the time horizon for ex-ante estimation should be considered in view of the RI life cycle. When information from the ex-ante assessment will be used for the extrapolation into the future, one should also consider the natural effect of acceleration.

The most likely finding is that the area/region of impact are the same in ex-ante and ex-post, unless new important stakeholders have different interests (e.g. the RI development is supported by other regions/countries).

For further scoping information please visit the same section for UC4 and UC1.