AnM.16: Scenarios

Scenarios

Relevance:
Scenarios are a future-oriented method used in FenRIAM to support the ex-ante estimation and analytical processes for eliciting various possible developments – baseline, success or other alternatives. Scenarios are applied in two FenRIAM modules - System Dynamics and Alternative Developments for providing visions on how the RI-region system could evolve in the future and what would be its behavior against set of uncertain, yet influential forces and surprises.

Description:
Scenarios are plausible shared visions of the future (usually 10-20 years ahead), described in narrative form, that provide an opportunity for the RI to anticipate how to position itself in those future developments and to take its present day decisions in a strategic manner. Scenarios are creative internally consistent stories built around trends and drivers influencing the RI-region system. Scenario workshops with the participation of different experts are organised for conducting respective multidisciplinary analyses in a systematic and transparent way. These workshops are preceded by a significant preparatory work by the FenRIAM analytical team on developing a scoping document with the RI and region profiles, setting a time horizon, preparing SWOT analyses and in some cases, list of suggested driving forces influencing the RI-region system. Skilled facilitators are needed for streamlining the discussions and ensuring equal participation of the invited experts. In most of the cases scenarios are built around an impact (importance) / uncertainty matrix framed by key drivers selected by the experts after reaching an informed consensus.

Procedure:

  • Compile a scoping document with key information on the RI and the region
  • Set a time horizon of your scenario (usually 10-20 years ahead)
  • Prepare short report on the SWOT analyses if conducted by the team prior the scenario workshop
  • Identify and enrol participants that can provide valuable expertise to the workshop discussions
  • Design the workshop agenda and methodology according to the time and human resources you have
  • Ensure professional facilitators and skilled reporteurs to record the workshop outcomes
  • Design a workshop report and send it out to the participants for comments
  • Disseminate the results to interested readers

Data sources:

  • Analysis of internal documents and databases

Definitions:
None

References:
Standard textbooks